Market Information Tuesday 22 September 2026

Oil and gas prices are set to keep pushing up inflation for longer than expected. European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane said geopolitical risks are now elevated again. He told Swiss newspaper Le Temps that this second wave of energy price increases should lead to higher and more persistent inflation. Inflation should recede towards target starting mid-2027. Spillover to services has been limited since February. Lane expects upward pressure on food, broader energy and goods prices, while services pressures stay relatively contained.

New US tariffs could halve Canada’s fourth quarter growth to below 1%. Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem warned that renewed uncertainty threatens investment and hiring. Canada’s economy grew 3.3% annualized in the second quarter. But a collapsed trade deal and fresh tariffs have widened the rift with the US. Annual inflation stands at 3%, above the BoC’s 2% target. It could rise further if oil prices stay near 100 dollars a barrel amid the Middle East conflict. Macklem said businesses are adjusting supply chains and adopting AI to reduce tariff exposure.

Upside risks to inflation may be materialising, according to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock. The RBA points to persistently high energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict. She also cited continued excess demand in the domestic economy. Markets are pricing a 95% chance of a rate hike to 4.60% at the RBA’s meeting on September 29. Rates are expected to peak at 4.85% in early 2027. Core inflation stands at 3.6%, above the RBA’s 2% to 3% target range.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.98% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 6 basis points to 3.49% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.