Market Information Tuesday 21 July 2026

The European Central Bank, ECB, will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, with most economists expecting the deposit rate to remain at 2.25% as oil prices near $90 per barrel keep inflation risks elevated. President Christine Lagarde has described a “twilight zone” of shifting oil market cycles requiring careful judgment. Economists polled by Bloomberg still expect one more hike to 2.5% in September, with high gas prices also flagged as a concern.

The World Bank has approved a $1.5 billion loan to South Africa, the fourth in a series of stand-alone development policy loans since 2022 aimed at easing infrastructure bottlenecks. Reforms in electricity and transport could create almost 600,000 jobs by 2032, including 280,000 next year. Power shortages have been nearly eliminated for 18 months, private renewable energy investment has risen sixfold, and rail and port freight volumes are up more than 50% since 2023.

New Zealand’s annual inflation rose to 4.1% in the second quarter, a two-and-a-half-year high, above forecasts of 4.0% and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s own projection of 3.9%. Petrol prices jumped 27.5% and diesel 71.1%, driven by the Middle East war. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its cash rate to 2.50% earlier this month and is expected to hike further in September, with core inflation still elevated despite some softening.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.69% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 3.19% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.