Market Information Thursday 6 November 2025

US private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October after a 29,000 decline, suggesting tentative stabilization in hiring, according to ADP data. Pay growth remained flat for over a year, pointing to balanced labor supply and demand. Despite modest gains, recent layoffs at major firms and a softening job market keep pressure on the Federal Reserve as it weighs further rate cuts.

Oil prices fell about 1 percent, with Brent crude settling at $63.65 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $59.75, as concerns over a global supply glut overshadowed solid American fuel demand. U.S. crude inventories jumped by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million, far above forecasts, while gasoline stocks dropped by 4.7 million. Sentiment was further pressured by Canada’s possible retreat from its emissions cap and OPEC+ plans to raise output by 137,000 barrels a day in December.

Traders are expected to remain net short on the US dollar through November as markets price in up to four further Federal Reserve rate cuts by end of 2026, despite Chair Jerome Powell’s caution over a December move. USD has fallen about 8% this year, trimming earlier losses, while rate futures imply a 70% chance of a December cut. Strategists expect the euro to climb to around $1.20 within six months, with sentiment turning less bearish as positioning data remains unavailable amid the prolonged US government shutdown.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.