Market Information Thursday 16 July 2026

European Central Bank policymakers signalled a cautious stance on interest rates, urging vigilance but not calling for immediate tightening. Although rates were raised in June and further increases remain possible this year, a July move is seen as unlikely. Officials noted no evidence of second-round inflation effects, despite rising oil prices. Markets assign a low probability to a near-term hike but expect two increases by next spring, with September fully priced in amid persistent uncertainty.

U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell by 0.3% in June after a revised 0.6% increase in May, signalling easing inflationary pressures prior to renewed Middle East tensions. The annual increase slowed to 5.5% from 6.0%. A 1.4% drop in goods prices, led by a 6.4% decline in energy costs, drove the decline, while services rose 0.2%. Markets still expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in July but anticipate a hike in September.

Brazil is preparing for a potential 25% U.S. tariff on over 4,000 products worth around 15 billion dollars annually, marking the first case under a broader new trade strategy. An additional 12.5% tariff linked to a forced-labour probe could raise the total burden to 37.5%. The move may strain bilateral trade further, prompt retaliation, and accelerate Brazil’s shift towards alternative partners such as China.

The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.65% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.15% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.