Market Information Thursday 15 October 2026

The Bank of England’s chief economist expressed scepticism about market expectations for four quarter-point interest-rate increases over the next year. Although three Monetary Policy Committee members supported a rate increase in September, the majority preferred to wait for clearer evidence of the Iran war’s inflationary impact. Continued conflict has made persistent inflation risks clearer, while slowing UK wage growth is positive but remains at the upper end of levels considered consistent with the 2% inflation target.

US Treasury yields may rise further as the Federal Reserve could deliver one or two additional interest-rate increases before its tightening cycle ends, according to PIMCO. The bond manager expects rates to remain unchanged in October, with another increase potentially coming later in 2026. Although further tightening is considered largely priced into long-term yields, rate-sensitive sectors, particularly housing and commercial real estate, face greater risks, with commercial property already showing substantial weakening.

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund is supporting the functioning and liquidity of global financial markets, according to the country’s vice finance minister for international affairs. Japan’s early response to population ageing, including universal pensions and healthcare introduced in 1961, contributed to both a healthier workforce and significant pension-fund accumulation. The fund is now the world’s largest institutional investor and recently recorded a record quarterly investment gain, increasing attention on potential changes to its investment strategy.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.91% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.55% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.