Market Information Thursday 12 November 2026

The European Central Bank’s future interest-rate path will depend on whether the recent energy-price shock spreads into wages and broader underlying inflation. Although energy prices have recently declined, policymakers remain concerned that second-round effects could lift core inflation even as headline inflation falls. The central bank will therefore focus on inflation developments rather than committing to a predetermined timetable for future policy decisions.

Foreign investors withdrew a net $49.77 billion from seven Asian equity markets in October, the largest monthly outflow since June, amid concerns about artificial intelligence investment profitability and potential tighter regulation. Taiwan suffered record net selling of $30.68 billion, while South Korea lost $14.59 billion. Regional equities underperformed global markets, encouraging some reallocation toward developed markets and US Treasuries. India, meanwhile, has attracted renewed foreign inflows in November.

US inflation remains too high and must return sustainably to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, while economic growth and the labour market have remained resilient. Higher energy costs related to the Iran war and strong artificial intelligence investment have contributed to inflation pressures. However, inflation expectations remain anchored and wage growth appears consistent with the target. Financial markets see more than a 50% probability of a December rate increase and fully priced one by March.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 3.02% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 3.37% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.