Market Information Thursday 12 March 2026

The Iran conflict has driven European energy prices sharply higher, with Brent crude hitting nearly $120 a barrel earlier this week before retreating, and Dutch TTF gas hitting a three-year high of 63.77 euros per MWh. Analysts say a repeat of the 2022 inflation shock remains unlikely, given greater energy supply diversification and a less overheated macro backdrop. A short disruption could push eurozone inflation from 1.9% to 2.5%, enough to delay but not derail ECB and BoE rate cuts.

The U.S. budget deficit reached $1 trillion through February, though it ran 12% below the level that was seen a year ago, as revenues outpaced spending. Tariff collections surged 294% to $151 billion, with customs duties now exceeding corporate tax receipts for the first time. Interest payments on the $39 trillion national debt totalled $79 billion in February alone, remaining one of the largest expenditure categories.

Bitcoin slipped around 2% to roughly $69,600 as Brent crude surged more than 10%, driven by fresh tanker attacks in Iraqi waters and mounting Iran war concerns. The risk-off move has kept sentiment cautious, though analysts note negative funding rates on Bitcoin futures, which have occurred only ten times since 2018, have historically preceded strong returns.

The 6M Euribor increased with 12 basis points to 2.30% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 2.95% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.