Market Information Monday 19 October 2026

US inflation rose to 3.7%, well above the 2% target, increasing pressure for further monetary tightening. However, markets now price just a 15% chance of an October rate rise, down from 50% earlier in the week. A 25bp increase in December is widely expected, while persistent price pressures could prompt further tightening in 2027.

Technology stocks came under pressure as investors questioned the financing and cash flow behind the AI investment boom, pushing major US indices lower. Several AI infrastructure stocks fell more than 25%, amid concerns over higher capital costs. Strong underlying chip demand, however, suggests the sell off may reflect a recalibration of expectations rather than a collapse in AI spending.

Italy plans to raise about €5bn from banks and insurers next year to help plug its budget gap, with further contributions planned in subsequent years. The measures come as its bond spread over Germany has risen to around 110bp, highlighting fiscal vulnerability from high public debt. Growth is forecast at 1% this year, up from 0.6%.

The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.95% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 3.54% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.