Market Information Monday 09 March 2026

Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, anticipates that inflation pressures will ease later this year. If not, the Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy. The rising oil prices due to conflict could impact inflation, growth, and employment. Hammack highlights the uncertain effects of this shock on the economy and suggests that prolonged price pressures might require more restrictive policies. Despite concerning economic data, including job losses and a slight increase in unemployment rate, the Fed might leave interest rates unchanged. Hammack stresses the importance of maintaining a strong banking oversight system to withstand future economic shocks.

The price of aluminium has risen by nearly 10% this week, marking the largest weekly increase since 2023. The price hike is driven by ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, where deliveries have been disrupted by the war that began last week. Iranian attacks on Gulf countries and retaliatory strikes by the U.S. and Israel contribute to the market uncertainty. Aluminium is currently trading at $3,446 per ton, approximately €3,000, continuing its upward trend over recent months. Supply remains tight due to limited smelting capacity in China and production restrictions in Europe because of high energy costs, yet demand from the construction and renewable energy sectors is expected to stay robust.

U.S. administration officials defended the decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil, suggesting it would ease market pressure amid rising gasoline prices due to the Iran conflict. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Ambassador Mike Waltz emphasized that allowing Indian purchases of Russian oil for 30 days could mitigate fears of oil shortages and stabilize price spikes. Despite the ongoing war, which has led to significant price increases at gas stations, Wright asserted that these spikes were based on fear rather than actual shortages, predicting a return to lower prices once the conflict concludes. Political analysts caution that prolonged high gasoline prices could negatively impact Republicans in upcoming elections.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.14% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.88% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.