Market Information Friday 31 October 2025

In the third quarter of this year, the Dutch economy grew unexpectedly strong at 0.4%, driven by increases in government spending and exports, including oil products and machinery. Exports exceeded expectations despite economic headwinds, aided by lower tariffs from the US-European trade agreement. Household spending modestly increased by 0.3% despite a historic rise in purchasing power, while investments fell by 1.6% following prior higher defense spending. Unemployment slightly rose in a still tight labour market, although producer confidence increased. This suggests room for future recovery while the labour market cools slightly.

The eurozone economy grew slightly more than expected in Q3, driven by strong growth in France and Spain, offsetting stagnation in Germany and Italy. The region expanded by 0.2%, beating expectations, and showed annualized growth of 1.3%, indicating resilience despite geopolitical and trade-related uncertainties. Spain and France led growth, while Germany continued to struggle due to lost industrial competitiveness, though increased government spending may support future growth. The near-record low unemployment rate supports the view that further ECB rate cuts are unnecessary. Economists remain cautiously optimistic about future growth, predicting modest increases as tariff uncertainties ease.

The European Central Bank maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, as expected, supported by stronger-than-anticipated growth figures in the eurozone, particularly from France and Spain, offsetting stagnation in Germany. The rate is considered neutral and appropriate given inflation is near the ECB’s target. This marks the third consecutive decision to leave the rate unchanged, following reductions in 2024 to 2025. While stability is anticipated, analysts from Vanguard and ING suggest that falling energy prices and investment plan delays could prompt rate cuts if inflation decreases.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.64% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.