Market Information Wednesday 28 October 2026

Trump reiterated that the Iran war will end “whenever I want it to,” insisting on a guarantee that Tehran will never develop a nuclear weapon as a condition for any deal, while US Central Command estimates the conflict has now cost 47 billion dollars, up around 3 billion from previous figures. The war is costing American families an average of 2,000 dollars each, according to Moody’s Analytics, split between higher energy costs, interest rate pressures and increased military spending. The economic toll is weighing on Trump’s approval rating, which stands at 32% ahead of the 3 November midterm elections, with reports emerging that US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for intensified strikes on Iran after the vote.

The dollar’s safe-haven status is being tested as record foreign inflows into US equities and hyperscaler bonds have transformed the currency into an increasingly risk-sensitive asset tied to the AI trade. When AI valuations came under pressure last week, haven flows favoured the yen and Swiss franc over the dollar, with analysts at Nomura warning that if the AI trade unwinds “it’s not as clear the dollar benefits in the same way it would have done in the past.” A sustained reversal could hit the dollar on three fronts simultaneously: weaker growth forcing Fed rate cuts and fading institutional demand for US corporate bonds and equities.

Rising sovereign yields and surging bond issuance by US hyperscalers are pushing up European corporate borrowing costs, with investment-grade yields climbing 30 basis points to 4.4% since September and high-yield costs rising 90 basis points to 7%, according to Goldman Sachs. Around half of Stoxx 600 debt could be affected relatively quickly, as one quarter matures within two years and a further quarter carries floating rates, with interest expense already having risen from 1.25% to 1.85% of sales since 2022, cutting earnings by more than 5%. Goldman does not foresee a systemic credit event but warns that companies with weak cash generation and near-term refinancing needs face growing pressure, as European earnings growth is expected to slow to below 10% next year from around 20% in 2026.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.98% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 3.46% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.