Market Information Thursday 01 October 2026

Inflation accelerated across the euro area in September, driven by higher energy costs, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to continue raising interest rates. Inflation rose to 3.4% in France, 4.1% in Italy, 3.3% in Germany and 5.0% in Spain, while euro area inflation is expected to reach 3.6%. Markets now anticipate additional rate increases over the coming year as elevated energy prices and a stronger U.S. dollar risk keeping inflation above the European Central Bank’s target for longer.

The U.S. goods trade deficit widened sharply to $132.6 billion in August, exceeding expectations, as imports surged 5.5% to a record $336.1 billion. Higher imports of industrial supplies, including petroleum, and capital goods linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure investment drove the increase. Exports rose 1.9%, supported by industrial supplies, but declines in consumer goods, food products and vehicle shipments limited gains. The data suggest trade may continue weighing on third-quarter economic growth despite rising inventories.

The Indian rupee remained one of Asia’s weakest-performing currencies in the third quarter, pressured by elevated oil prices, rising global bond yields and subdued investor sentiment. The currency fell 1.2% over the quarter, with interventions by the Reserve Bank of India helping prevent sharper losses. Markets are focused on next week’s policy decision, where a 25-basis-point rate increase is widely expected. Capital inflows of $143 billion since June have strengthened India’s ability to support the currency despite persistent external pressures.

The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 3.10% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 3.69% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.