Market Information Tuesday 29 September 2026

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6%, the highest level in 15 years, as inflation remains sticky amid the Middle East conflict. This marks the fourth hike this year, totalling 100 basis points. Inflation has run above the 2 to 3% target band throughout 2026, reaching 3.5% in July. The RBA cited higher global energy prices and artificial intelligence related demand as key inflation drivers, and signalled readiness for further rate increases. Economic growth slowed to 2.1% in the second quarter.

The euro has fallen around 2% this month to two-month lows near $1.14, pressured by a US rate rise and political risk in Europe. Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces pressure after far-right gains in state elections, while French bonds trade at a premium above 110 basis points over Germany. European gas prices above €80 per megawatt hour, the highest since late 2022, weigh on the euro’s outlook.

Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,130 per ounce, hovering near a more than seven-week low, as markets weigh the possibility of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer. US gold futures fell 0.2% to $4,162. Markets now see a 72.5% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, up from 57.6% a week earlier. Fed Governor Lisa Cook cited continued inflationary pressure from artificial intelligence (AI) related demand and higher oil prices.

The 6M Euribor increased with 6 basis points to 3.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.70% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.