Market Information Friday 04 September 2026

European diesel markets are experiencing unprecedented tightness, with the diesel premium over crude oil rising above $100 per barrel for the first time on record. Supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions and Russia’s extension of its diesel export ban have removed an estimated 1.3 to 1.4 million barrels per day from global markets, increasing cost pressures on transport, agriculture and industry. The situation highlights growing risks that energy-related inflation could remain elevated despite efforts to stabilize crude oil prices.

The Japanese yen strengthened by more than 2% to around ¥155 per US dollar as investors increased bets on further Bank of Japan rate hikes and speculated about potential currency intervention. Markets are now pricing a roughly 25% probability of consecutive rate increases in September and October, while Japan’s 10-year government bond yield recently reached 3%, its highest level since 1996. The shift signals a potential turning point in Japan’s monetary policy and could influence global capital flows and bond mark

US financial markets rallied after comments from a Federal Reserve official reduced expectations of a near-term interest rate increase, lowering the perceived probability of a September hike from 63% to about 50%. Major equity indices gained more than 1%, while Treasury yields retreated from recent highs as investors responded positively to signs that inflation pressures may be easing. Attention is now focused on labour market data, with economists expecting the US economy to have added around 56,000 jobs while unemployment remains at 4.1%.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.77% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.38% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.