Market Information Thursday 06 August 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) estimates that uncertainty linked to wars and trade frictions reduced euro area growth by 0.4% between the first quarters of 2025 and 2026, with further pressure expected this year. However, investment in intangible assets, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), has proved more resilient than spending on tangible assets. The ECB suggests that a continued shift towards intangibles could reduce investment sensitivity to uncertainty and help stabilise the investment cycle.

The UK services sector returned to growth in July, with the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 52.1 from 48.8 in June, while the Composite PMI increased to 52.2 from 49.3. Growth was driven by stronger new orders, which expanded for the first time in four months. Business confidence rose to its highest level since February, supported by easing Middle East tensions and softer inflation. However, employment continued to decline for a 22nd consecutive month.

The U.S. Treasury raised its third-quarter borrowing estimate to $739 billion, $68 billion higher than projected in May, reflecting weaker-than-expected cash flows despite a larger starting cash balance. The Treasury expects to end September with a cash balance of $950 billion and forecasts fourth-quarter borrowing of $628 billion. Investors are closely watching upcoming refunding plans for any changes in debt issuance strategy, particularly as higher oil prices and inflation concerns have lifted long-term Treasury yields.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.72% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 3.15% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.