Market Information Monday 27 July 2026

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged but signalled that further tightening may be required, with financial markets expecting at least two additional rate hikes by March 2027. The institution views the current inflation episode as a medium-sized shock, with inflation at 3% expected to return to the 2% target within about a year. Policymakers are closely monitoring whether higher energy prices trigger broader wage and price pressures that could make inflation more persistent.

The United States is rebuilding a more durable tariff regime using established trade laws after courts struck down parts of earlier global tariffs. New Section 301 duties of 10% or 12.5% linked to forced-labour enforcement cover 99.4% of imports and largely replace expired temporary measures. Additional investigations into excess industrial capacity, intellectual property practices and strategic industries could result in further tariffs. Policymakers argue the measures support domestic production, while critics warn of higher costs and trade disruption.

India, South Africa and several other emerging economies are accelerating plans to build or expand strategic fuel reserves after disruptions linked to conflict around the Strait of Hormuz exposed vulnerabilities in energy security. South Africa proposes stocks equal to 60 days of imports, while India plans to add about 13mn barrels to existing reserves. Although these initiatives could help strengthen resilience, analysts note they remain small compared with potential supply disruptions affecting global oil markets.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.70% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 3.21% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.