Marketinformation 10/4/2026

Expectations for US Federal Reserve policy have become increasingly fragmented since the fragile truce between the US and Iran, with markets moving from pricing in rate hikes to again considering a possible rate cut later this year, although a pause remains the most likely scenario. Inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2% target, which limits room for easing as long as the labour market remains resilient, while higher oil prices linked to geopolitical tensions risk keeping inflation elevated for longer. Bond markets have already adjusted by pricing in higher long term inflation and fewer rate cuts, even as many economists continue to expect easing later due to growth and labour market risks.

Despite the announced ceasefire between the US and Iran, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, with the crucial shipping route effectively still largely closed. Iran is exercising control by imposing conditions and levying tolls on vessels, discouraging shipowners because of sanctions exposure and insurance uncertainty. As a result, tanker traffic is minimal, oil prices have rebounded to around $95–100 per barrel, and financial markets increasingly assume that elevated energy prices will persist, fuelling fears of inflation or even stagflation.

France has brought its gold reserves fully back under domestic control by selling 129 tonnes of gold stored in the United States and repurchasing an equivalent amount in Europe, generating a one off book profit of €12.8 billion due to high gold prices. The Banque de France stresses that the move was driven by technical and operational considerations rather than political concerns, as part of a long running effort to modernise its gold holdings. Other central banks, including De Nederlandsche Bank, see no reason to follow this approach and continue to rely on existing international storage agreements, while gold has regained importance as a stabilising asset in periods of financial stress.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.53% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.02% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.