Market Information Wednesday 22 April 2026

The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% next week and likely throughout 2026, despite rising inflation risks. Economists see the recent energy price shock as temporary and note that financial conditions have already tightened via bond markets. Inflation is forecast to rise before easing in 2027, while growth expectations have been downgraded. A high risk of stagflation reinforces a wait-and-see policy stance.

Major oil traders warn that demand destruction from the Iran war is likely to intensify, suggesting the economic fallout is not yet fully visible. Demand decline could rise to around 5 million barrels per day, about 5% of global supply, if disruptions persist. Supply from the Persian Gulf has already fallen sharply, hitting petrochemicals, aviation and agriculture, especially in Asia. A prolonged closure of key shipping routes could push the global economy into recession.

Private credit funds are under growing pressure as financing costs rise and lenders tighten terms. Investors now demand higher risk premiums, up 0.34 percentage points this year and 0.83 percentage points since early 2025, reflecting concerns over credit quality. Bond issuance by business development companies (funds that invest in private credit) fell to $6.8bn in the first quarter of 2026, down 22% year on year. Funds are increasingly turning to structured credit, such as collateralized loan obligations, to secure cheaper funding.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.42% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.04% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.