Market Information Wednesday 18 February 2026

The U.S. dollar, after a four-month decline, may rally in the near term as the political and economic environment shifts in its favor. Analysts point to improved U.S. growth prospects, business confidence, and expectations for a less aggressive stance by President Trump heading into midterm elections. The dollar index has remained below 100 since November, sliding to a four-year low in January, with the most significant losses against the Australian dollar. Citi and Rabobank see potential for dollar strength against currencies like the euro and sterling, influenced by factors including new Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s steady approach. Some, however, such as analysts from J.P. Morgan and BofA, expect the dollar to weaken further, suggesting mixed views on the currency’s trajectory.

Minister of Finance Eelco Heinen advocates for real steps toward a capital markets union in the EU. Six finance ministers from the largest EU economies, including the Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain, have discussed this issue. The aim of the capital markets union is to better integrate national capital markets into a single European market, which would stimulate economic growth and create a more resilient financial system. Currently, each EU country has its own capital market rules, leading to complications and extra costs. Ursula von der Leyen has set a deadline for June; if insufficient progress is made, a group of at least nine like-minded member states should proceed. A capital markets union would provide more investment capital for companies, which is particularly important for startups and scale-ups.

Germany’s ministry of Economic affairs has confirmed that the country’s gas supply remains secure for the winter, with no need for state intervention in the market. The situation is more stable compared to last year, bolstered by strong imports of LNG and pipeline gas. A ministry spokesperson mentioned ongoing work on a new arrangement to replace existing storage rules and an additional tool to protect critical energy infrastructure. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Germany implemented a three-stage emergency plan to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, leading to the development of new LNG terminals and supply agreements with countries like Qatar, Oman, and Norway. Germany’s gas demand has decreased by 15% since 2022, with current storage levels above legal thresholds, supported by reduced consumption. Gas prices have stabilised around 32 euros per megawatt hour amid reliable imports.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.75% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.