Market Information Tuesday 23 June 2026

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the euro zone’s current inflation shock falls within a middle scenario, requiring measured policy adjustment without triggering second-round effects or de-anchoring inflation expectations. Following a rate hike on June 11, after inflation exceeded 3%, the deposit rate now stands at 2.25%, within the neutral range of 1.75% to 2.50%. Markets have priced in one to two additional hikes. Lagarde noted the shock appears smaller than the 2021/22 episode but warned against complacency.

Uncertainty persists over the status of the Strait of Hormuz following a preliminary agreement between Iran and the United States to keep the waterway open for at least sixty days. Iran claimed to have closed it again after Israeli attacks on Lebanon, though the U.S. Central Command reported continued traffic. Dozens of vessels have transited, including tankers carrying over 17 million barrels of oil. Despite the ambiguity, oil prices fell to $78 per barrel, as many shipping companies remain hesitant due to unresolved concerns over mines and insurance coverage.

Canada’s annual inflation rate surged to 3.2% in May, a 29-month high, exceeding analyst expectations of 3.0%. This marks the first time in nearly two and a half years that inflation has moved outside the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range. The rise was primarily driven by gasoline prices, up 33.2% year-over-year, alongside food costs rising 3.8%. Core inflation measures remained on target, with the consumer price index (CPI)-trim at 2.0% and CPI-median at 2.1%. Following the data, money markets price in one 25 basis point rate hike in December.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.62% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 3.00% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.