Market Information Tuesday 21 November 2023

The Conference Board reported yesterday that the leading indicators for the U.S. economy fell further in October. The Leading Economic Index, a business cycle indicator that shows the development of the economy over the next six months, came in at 103.9. This is a decline of 0.8 percent. September saw a decline of 0.7 percent. Six- and 12-month growth rates also remained negative in October.

Italian government bonds rose (and yields declined) on Monday after Moody’s Investors Service on Friday affirmed Italy’s rating to Baa3, the lowest level of investment grade, and raised its outlook from negative to stable. Ten-year government bond yields fell 4 basis points to 4.264%. The spread between German and Italian 10-year yields narrowed to 1.67 percentage points. The spread versus German Bunds is seen as an important indicator for Italian bonds.

Oil prices rose further yesterday. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate increased 2 percent to $77.83. Brent also increased with about 2 percent. The increases followed a report that Saudi Arabia will extend voluntary production cuts next year. Oil prices also closed sharply higher on Friday but recorded a fourth week of declines.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 4.06% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 3.08% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.