Market Information Tuesday 19 May 2026

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to transfer a record surplus of nearly 3 trillion rupees ($31.2 billion) to the government this week, surpassing last fiscal year’s 2.7 trillion rupees. The payout provides a key buffer as escalating energy prices from the Iran war inflate India’s import bill and widen its current account deficit. The 10-year benchmark yield has risen around 50 basis points this year to 7.10%, while the rupee has weakened nearly 7%.

Around three-quarters of Americans report that their incomes are failing to keep pace with inflation, according to a CBS News poll conducted in May. In April, U.S. inflation rose 3.8% annually while wage growth reached only 3.6%, marking the first time since 2023 that consumer prices outpaced earnings. Energy prices drove 40% of the April inflation spike, with gasoline costs up over 28% year-on-year. Economists warn that sustained pressure on household budgets could ultimately dampen consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its growth forecast for the United Kingdom to 1.0% for 2026, up from 0.8%, citing stronger-than-expected pre-war economic momentum. However, the IMF cautioned that domestic political uncertainty could dampen consumption and investment. Inflation is projected to approach 4% by year-end, though the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to reach its 2% target by end-2027 without raising rates, provided energy prices decline as markets anticipate.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.56% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 2 basis points to 3.18% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.