Market Information Thursday 31 July 2025

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates stable at 4.25%–4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with two governors dissenting in favor of a cut, the first dual dissent since 1993. Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave no indication of a possible rate change in September, citing uncertainty over the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs. Political pressure is mounting, as President Trump continues to demand rate cuts while Congress questions both its broader independence and the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation project of its headquarters.

President Trump signed an executive order imposing 50% tariffs on Brazil, citing an economic emergency, despite the U.S. having a $6.8 billion trade surplus with Brazil last year. Separately, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting Friday, criticizing India for stalled trade talks and arms purchases from Russia. He also warned of an unspecified “penalty” and confirmed that 15% is now the minimum tariff for countries without trade deals.

US GDP rebounded with 3% annualized growth in Q2 after a 0.5% contraction in Q1, outpacing the 2.6% consensus. The surge largely reflected a drop in imports, even as private domestic purchases growth slowed to 1.2% from 1.9%, its weakest pace since 2022. Economists warn that policy uncertainty, tariff‑driven inflation pressures, and tighter immigration constraints may be masking an underlying economic cooling.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.08% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.68% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.