Market Information Thursday 26 March 2026

Wall Street is raising recession alarm bells, with EY-Parthenon placing the probability at 40% and Goldman Sachs lifting its estimate to 30%, as oil prices remain roughly 25% above pre-war levels. If crude stays above $100 per barrel, US inflation could approach 5% while GDP growth takes a hit of more than 1 percentage point. Goldman’s chief economist now expects below-trend growth and a rising unemployment rate, pushing ECB rate hikes into April and June while delaying Bank of England cuts to 2027.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is sending fertilizer prices sharply higher, with urea up roughly 50% and ammonia 20% since the war began. Around a third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the waterway, leaving 30% of exportable supply effectively stranded. Analysts warn crop yields will fall later this year, with emerging markets and food-import dependent nations most exposed to the coming price shock.

Gold steadied near USD 4,500 an ounce as conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran kept traders cautious, with the metal down nearly 15% since the war began. Rising inflation fears have led markets to bet on rates staying higher for longer, a persistent headwind for non-yielding bullion. Around 85 tons of gold ETF holdings have been redeemed since the conflict started, with a further 83 tons still lossmaking and vulnerable to liquidation, equivalent to roughly USD 12 billion.

The 6M Euribor increased with 12 basis points to 2.59% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 8 basis points to 3.02% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.