Market Information Thursday 25 June 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that European Union countries outside the euro area have made little progress towards meeting convergence criteria, with developments largely stalling due to external shocks and weakening public finances. Debt levels and deficits have risen since 2024. Apart from Bulgaria, recent entrants remain distant from adoption. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden lag, with Hungary failing all key criteria and requiring significant fiscal, institutional and structural improvements.

UK manufacturing orders contracted at the fastest pace since September 2020 in June, with the Confederation of British Industry balance falling to -45 from -41 in May. Expected output for the next three months also weakened to its lowest level since December 2024. Despite easing price pressures, manufacturers continue to face a challenging environment. While the reopening of key energy routes may provide some relief, supply chain and cost normalisation are expected to take time.

A Bank of America survey shows U.S. consumers now favour homebuying over renting for the first time since 2023, with 53% preferring to purchase. This shift is led by younger generations and reflects rising optimism despite high prices, limited supply and elevated mortgage rates. While 71% still wait for better conditions, down from 75% in 2025, more buyers plan near-term purchases. Affordability remains the key constraint, and mortgage rates are expected to stay between 6.25% and 6.75%.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.64% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.93% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.