Market Information Thursday 19 March 2026

European leaders have unanimously rejected military involvement in U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran, with Germany and France citing lack of consultation and unclear war aims. Public opposition is strong across the continent, with 68% of Spaniards, 58% of Germans and 49% of Britons against the conflict. France is separately assembling a coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows, once conditions stabilize.

Europe’s four major central banks meet Thursday, with the ECB, Bank of England, Riksbank and Swiss National Bank all expected to hold rates as the Iran war scrambles their forecasts. Rate cuts once priced in for spring have been abandoned, with PIMCO projecting eurozone inflation peaking near 3% this year as energy costs surge. The Bank of England’s rate at 3.75% looks set to remain unchanged, with analysts warning a rise later in 2026 cannot be ruled out.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady but raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.7%, as the Iran war and oil price surge cloud the outlook for cuts. Markets now price just one reduction this year at best, with CME’s Fedwatch tool assigning a 42.5% probability of no cut at all. Powell added he would remain as chair beyond his May term if his successor Kevin Warsh is not confirmed in time by the Senate.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.31% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 4 basis points to 2.97% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.