Market Information Thursday 18 June 2026

Investors are increasingly betting on a stronger US dollar, driven by renewed confidence in the United States’ economic outperformance and expectations of sustained high interest rates. Futures positioning has surged to its highest level in over a year. Strong labour market data and rising core inflation have reduced expectations of rate cuts, with markets now pricing in a potential rate increase. In contrast, weaker outlooks in Europe and the United Kingdom reinforce the dollar’s relative appeal.

A European Central Bank policymaker indicated that a repeat of the 2022 inflation surge is less likely but still possible. Recent easing in oil prices following a Middle East peace framework has reduced near-term risks. However, policymakers remain focused on preventing second-round effects, where temporary shocks feed into wages and persistent inflation. The European Central Bank recently raised interest rates and left open the possibility of further increases amid ongoing geopolitical and energy-related uncertainties.

Japan is considering a temporary cut in its food consumption tax from 8% to 1% for two years, alongside targeted cash benefits of about 600 billion yen annually. The measure aims to support households but would reduce tax revenue by roughly 4.4 trillion yen in a 125 trillion yen budget, while boosting gross domestic product by just 0.3 trillion yen. Concerns over fiscal sustainability are already weighing on the yen despite recent interest rate increases.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.59% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.98% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.