Market Information Thursday 15 May 2025

President Trump’s 90 day pause on most China tariffs cuts the effective US rate from 24% to 14%. In response, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Yardeni Research and Barclays have all lowered their recession probabilities for 2025 and raised GDP and S&P 500 forecasts. The tariff rollback should relieve consumer spending pressures, prevent inventory bottlenecks and support continued economic growth.

Europe positions itself as a reliable, long term partner for Africa amid global trade volatility caused by US tariffs, says EIB vice president Thomas Ostros. With China scaling back investments after its 2018 peak and US duties threatening African exports, Europe aims to serve as a stable “beacon,” lending up to €5 billion annually. The EU is deepening its engagement through projects like Kenya’s rapid bus system and a €100 million loan to Family Bank Kenya.

As of June 6, the transitional measures will expire, returning Ukrainian eggs, corn, poultry, dairy, beef, pork, and wheat to the higher EU import duties. This represents a severe blow to Ukraine’s economy just as the country is striving for a peace agreement with Russia. Under pressure from Poland and France, the European Commission is preparing a new trade negotiation, with Ukraine losing some €3.5 billion annually due to the removal of the exemptions.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.64% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.