Market Information Thursday 09 July 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, citing risks from the Middle East war, trade fragmentation and potential shifts in artificial intelligence-driven market expectations. Growth is projected to recover to 3.4% in 2027, still below recent averages. Inflation for 2026 was raised to 4.7%. Global trade growth is expected to slow to 3.5% from 5% in 2025, reflecting weaker demand and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

China’s central bank pledged to maintain an accommodative monetary policy to support weak domestic demand amid rising global uncertainty and external shocks. It highlighted a mismatch between strong supply and subdued demand, and committed to boosting consumption, ensuring ample liquidity and coordinating with fiscal policy. The bank aims to stabilise growth, support a recovery in prices and keep the currency broadly stable as economic growth is expected to moderate.

Polish zloty fell to a 19-month low on Wednesday as rising geopolitical tensions and a breakdown in Middle East peace talks increased market risk aversion ahead of a central bank decision. Investors expect the policy rate to remain at 3.75%, despite potentially higher inflation forecasts linked to the war. Regional currencies and equities also weakened, while expectations of softer policy guidance contributed to pressure on the zloty.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.54% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 9 basis points to 3.14% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.