Market Information Monday 30 March 2026

Global stocks and bonds have fallen sharply, with the MSCI All Country World index down about 9% and global bond indices losing over 3% in March as the Iran conflict drives energy prices higher and closes the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil costs, now more than 50% above pre‑war levels, have intensified fears of global stagflation, pushing the US 10‑year Treasury yield to 4.48% and triggering widespread liquidations across equities, bonds, and even gold. Investors have increasingly moved into cash as the traditional 60‑40 portfolio suffers its worst month since 2022, highlighting the absence of safe havens during this energy‑driven macro shock.

Indian banks are seeking a three‑month extension to comply with new central bank limits that cap net open onshore FX positions at $100 million, arguing that rapid implementation could force disorderly unwinding of trades. The rupee has fallen more than 5% year‑to‑date, hitting a record low of 94.84 per dollar, as rising oil prices and heavy foreign outflows put acute pressure on India’s external accounts. A delayed compliance timeline would allow banks to let positions mature naturally rather than liquidating them abruptly, reducing the risk of market stress during a period of heightened macro volatility.

A review of market activity shows several unusually well‑timed trades that preceded major US policy announcements, raising concerns among legal experts that sensitive government information may have leaked into the market. Large and timely positions across options, oil futures, and prediction markets generated profits reaching into the millions, including a $500 million oil trade executed minutes before a key Iran‑related announcement. Regulators face challenges because enforcement across commodities, derivatives, and prediction markets is inconsistent, and the scale and timing of these trades suggest the possibility of advance knowledge of high‑impact geopolitical actions.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 2 basis points to 2.50% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 3.16% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.