Market Information Monday 21 October 2024

Bank of America strategists predict a record $520 billion in state and local government debt issuance in 2025, with a revised 2024 forecast of $460 billion, up from $400 billion. Despite market volatility from economic data and upcoming US elections, favorable conditions like stable muni/Treasury ratios and narrowing credit spreads support strong issuance. Year-to-date issuance has already reached $409 billion, a 43% increase over last year.

Oil prices declined, with West Texas Intermediate and Brent falling below $69 and $73 per barrel, respectively, as the US pushed for a cease-fire in the Middle East and China’s crude demand weakened. The market has not fully recovered from early-week drops due to easing fears of an Israeli strike on Iran’s energy assets. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency forecasts a potential oil surplus in 2024 as global supply increases.

Stocks ended Friday with modest gains, as the S&P 500 and Dow reached new highs, while the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Investors are optimistic, with projections that the S&P 500 could rise to 6,200, a 30% gain for the year. Next week is crucial, as third-quarter earnings could extend the market’s six-week winning streak, amid favorable conditions like steady job growth and declining oil prices. However, risks include potential election-related volatility, escalating Middle East tensions, and the threat of unexpected market disruptions.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 3.04% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.36% compared to previous business day.
In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.