Market Insights

Market Information Monday 19 February 2024

In January, U.S. producer prices rose more than expected, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. On a monthly basis, there was an increase of 0.3%, surpassing economists’ predictions of a 0.1% rise. Core inflation, excluding volatile sectors like trade, food, and energy, rose by 0.6%. Year-on-year, producer prices increased by 0.9%, with core prices rising by 2.6%. The inflation data suggests that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the short term, pushing up yields.

In February, preliminary data from the University of Michigan indicated a boost in consumer confidence in the U.S. The overall confidence index improved from 79.0 to 79.6. While respondents were slightly more negative about the current economic situation, that subindex decreased from 81.9 to 81.5. However, the expectations index increased from 77.1 to 78.4. The inflation expectation for the next 12 months rose to 3.0%, within the range of 2.3 to 3.0% seen before the pandemic. The 5-year inflation expectation remained within the range of 2.9 to 3.1%.

The AEX closed higher at 858.11 points, a 1.2% increase, despite disappointing U.S. inflation figures. Strong economic data from various sectors contributed to the rise. The UK officially entered a recession, contracting by 0.3% in Q4 2023 due to decreased consumer spending, while France experienced a slight inflation uptick, with consumer prices rising by 3.1% in January.

The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 3.93% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 3 basis points to 2.75% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.

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