Market Information Monday 15 June 2026

US consumer sentiment rose to 48.9 in June from a record low of 44.8, beating expectations, supported by easing gasoline prices and a resilient labour market. Lower-income households led the improvement as fuel costs declined from recent highs, though inflation above 4% continues to weigh on purchasing power. A newly agreed US‑Iran peace deal, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, may further ease energy supply pressures and reduce inflation risks. Ongoing geopolitical tensions nevertheless remain a key risk to inflation and growth, limiting prospects for interest rate cuts.

Germany’s economy is being supported primarily by increased government spending on defence and infrastructure, preventing a contraction despite weak private sector activity. Growth is forecast at 0.5% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, downgraded from earlier estimates as higher energy costs and geopolitical tensions weigh on demand and investment. Inflation is expected at 2.9% in 2026 and to remain above the European Central Bank’s 2% target through 2028, with risks tilted towards higher inflation and weaker growth.

India’s Chief Economic Adviser indicated that there is less urgency to revise capital gains taxes on equities compared to bonds, signalling limited policy changes for stock markets. Recent measures have focused on attracting capital into government securities amid foreign equity outflows, a weakening currency and elevated oil prices. Growth is now projected at 6.6% for fiscal 2027, lower than earlier estimates, with risks from energy costs and potential weather-related disruptions to inflation and economic stability.

The 6M Euribor increased with 3 basis points to 2.62% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 3.04% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.