Market Information Monday 13 April 2026

Global policymakers are meeting as the Middle East war delivers a major shock to the world economy, prompting the IMF and World Bank to downgrade growth and raise inflation forecasts. Growth in emerging and developing economies is now projected at 3.65% in 2026, down from 4%, and could fall to 2.6% if the conflict persists, while inflation may rise from 3% to as high as 6.7%. The IMF estimates $20–50bn in near‑term emergency financing needs, warning that 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity amid record public debt levels.

War‑driven volatility has boosted trading activity across the US financial system, with first‑quarter trading revenues expected to exceed $40bn, the highest level in at least 12 years and about 13% higher than a year earlier. Sharp swings in oil prices, equities, and interest rates have driven trading growth of 13–15% in equities and 8–13% in fixed income, currencies, and commodities. Overall bank profits are forecast to rise about 7%, although prolonged conflict risks dampening dealmaking and equity issuance.

UK retail investment flows deteriorated sharply as geopolitical uncertainty coincided with peak tax‑year inflows, leading to net withdrawals of £1.4bn from equity funds and £535m from bond funds in March. This marked the worst March for equity fund flows since 2015 and the tenth consecutive month of net selling, reflecting caution amid rising yields and market volatility. While some investors placed cash into savings accounts without committing to markets, overall risk appetite remained subdued despite selective interest in global and US‑focused assets.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 10 basis points to 2.43% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 3.09% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.