Market Information Monday 10 March 2025

Oil prices rose on Friday after Russian vice premier suggested that OPEC+ could reverse its planned production increase if the market remains unbalanced. Earlier this week, WTI and Brent fell to their lowest levels since September, partly due to concerns about a global trade war and the economic impact of Trump’s aggressive trade policies. The decision by OPEC+ to proceed with easing production cuts in April also contributed to the decline. Despite Friday’s rebound, analysts still consider oil prices to be in a ‘bear’ market, with a weekly drop of nearly 4%.

As Europe prioritizes defense, it faces resistance from its own banking sector. Defense industry executives and politicians are calling for urgent regulatory reforms to help banks fund arms manufacturers more efficiently. Many defense startups struggle with basic banking services due to internal restrictions and ESG concerns, which treat arms manufacturing as a reputational risk. The urgency intensified after President Trump publicly berated Ukraine’s leader and suspended military aid, prompting Europe to pledge massive financial support for Kyiv. However, despite political momentum, banks remain slow to adjust, with defense companies still facing significant financing barriers.

US consumer prices rose in February, highlighting slow progress on inflation, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to stay cautious. The core consumer price index is expected to have increased 3.2% from last year, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. While economic data indicate some labor market weaknesses and softer consumer spending, price pressures persist, particularly with the upcoming 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. The Fed is awaiting clearer signs of disinflation before adjusting interest rates.

The 6M Euribor increased with 4 basis points to 2.39% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.71% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.