Market Information Monday 10 June 2024

The Dutch economy is expected to have a soft landing according to the Spring Forecast by De Nederlandsche Bank, with a growth of 0.5 percent in 2024 and 1.3 percent in 2025 and 2026. The economy is stimulated by higher government and consumer spending, rising house prices, and increasing employment, although business investments and exports are still lagging. Inflation is expected to decrease from 2.8 percent in 2024 to 1.8 percent in 2026, while the budget deficit is projected to rise to 3.7 percent in 2026, well above the European norm.

In May, employment in the United States increased more than expected with 272,000 new jobs, versus market expectations of 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate came in at 4.0 percent, slightly higher than the expected 3.9 percent. The average hourly wage increased by 0.4 percent to 34.91 dollars, representing an annual wage growth of 4.1 percent, above the expected 3.9 percent.

Chinese exports in May rose more than expected, with an increase of 7.6 percent year-on-year in dollars, while economists had predicted a rise of 4.8 percent. Imports grew by 1.8 percent, significantly less than the expected 4.0 percent. China’s trade surplus amounted to 82.62 billion dollars, higher than the expected 73.7 billion dollars. In yuan, Chinese exports increased by 11.2 percent.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 3.74% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 5 basis points to 2.84% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.