Market Information Friday 27 March 2026

Fitch outlines a downside scenario in which a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz keep energy prices high and disrupt supply chains, pushing inflation up and weakening confidence, spending and investment in advanced economies. Growth would slow sharply, with the United States slipping below 1 percent, Europe stagnating and several Asian economies, particularly South Korea, taking the biggest hit due to their dependence on Middle Eastern energy. Labour markets risk rising unemployment, governments have limited fiscal room for support, and sectors such as chemicals in Europe and Asia, Gulf-region banks and Dubai real estate face heightened vulnerabilities.

More than thirty countries are considering ways to support safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a significant increase from the small initial group willing to send naval vessels, although many governments only wish to act after a ceasefire. Mark Rutte faces criticism from diplomats who believe he aligns too closely with Washington as Donald Trump pressures European NATO members to deploy ships despite security concerns and discomfort with the American and Israeli intervention that has driven up oil prices. Rutte argues Europe needed time to regroup and emphasises that higher defence spending across Europe and Canada is partly due to US pressure, while NATO continues to view Russia and its partnerships with authoritarian states as its primary strategic threat.

The United States has lifted sanctions on several Belarusian entities added to its blacklist after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, easing restrictions on potash-related products and permitting transactions with a state-owned bank. The move represents a partial reduction in pressure on a country supporting Russia’s war effort, although many Western measures remain in place. A major global potash producer is among the affected entities, while the European Union continues to enforce its own embargo on potash imports from Belarus.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 7 basis points to 2.52% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 11 basis points to 3.13% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.