Market Information Friday 26 June 2026

Iraq is pushing for higher oil production quotas within OPEC as it seeks to recover from a fiscal crisis triggered by the US-Iran conflict, which disrupted exports and forced monetary financing of government spending. The country, heavily reliant on oil revenues, has signalled it could reconsider its membership if output limits do not align with its capacity, following similar tensions that led another member to increase exports to about 4.05mn barrels per day after exiting. The situation highlights growing strain within OPEC’s quota system, as geopolitical shocks and uneven production capacities challenge cohesion and raise risks to coordinated global oil supply management.

Global equity markets are being reshaped by the AI-driven semiconductor cycle, as surging demand for high-performance memory chips has created supply shortages and pushed prices sharply higher. This has boosted profitability across the chip sector and lifted broader market sentiment, even as it creates cost pressures for downstream industries such as consumer electronics, highlighting uneven distribution of gains. Despite strong earnings momentum and a projected 12 to 15% supply shortfall next year, broader indices remain volatile, reflecting concerns about AI investment returns and the sustainability of current valuations.

Europe’s economy is seeing rising demand for cooling infrastructure as extreme heat becomes more frequent, with temperatures exceeding 40°C in parts of the continent and driving growth in the HVAC market. The sector is benefiting both from climate change and structural drivers such as urbanisation, stricter energy efficiency standards, and rapid data centre expansion, which is increasing industrial cooling demand. However, high installation costs of $10,000 to $20,000 and rising electricity prices risk limiting household adoption, pointing to affordability constraints despite strong underlying demand.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 3 basis points to 2.61% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.92% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.