Market Information Friday 12 September 2025

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), emphasized that the bank remains well-positioned and flexible, deciding on interest rates based on each meeting. Following a unanimous decision to keep interest rate unchanged, Lagarde highlighted that risks to economic growth are balanced, and inflation aligns with the ECB’s 2% target. Although global trade uncertainties have decreased, she acknowledged that tensions could still affect market stability. Despite desinflation ending, inflation prospects remain uncertain, with the strong euro potentially lowering inflation. The ECB forecasts inflation at 1.9% for 2027, slightly below its target.

In August, U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected, marking the highest annual inflation growth in seven months. Despite this increase, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates next week due to a weakening labour market. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in August, with a year-over-year rise of 2.9%, the largest since January. Analysts noted the unexpected rise in prices for airfare and hotels contributing to the CPI figures.

The U.S. economy is showing signs of strain, with domestic demand slowing and job growth decreasing, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Spokesperson Julie Kozack highlighted that while inflation is on track to meet the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration pose risks that could elevate inflation. Kozack suggested the Federal Reserve has room to lower interest rates, but should proceed cautiously. Recent revisions revealed 911,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated, hinting at job growth stalling prior to tariff imposition.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 1 basis point to 2.60% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.