Market Information Friday 13 March 2026

Private credit markets, particularly in the US, face mounting systemic pressure as default rates, historically averaging 2.6%, are projected to potentially double in the coming years amid AI‑driven economic shifts. Investors have already pulled capital from private credit funds, signalling broader concerns about credit quality and the resilience of non‑bank lending structures. With upside capped and downside fully borne by lenders, rising defaults and thinner spreads threaten to reshape the risk dynamics of the private debt ecosystem across advanced economies.

Oil prices surged nearly 9-10%, with Brent reaching $100.46 and WTI $95.70, as escalating conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest supply disruption in modern global markets. With 400 million barrels planned for release from strategic reserves offering only limited relief, equivalent to roughly 25 days of lost flows, the global energy system remains severely unbalanced. Middle Eastern output has dropped by at least 10 million barrels per day, refinery shutdowns exceed 2.35 million b/d, and heightened regional tensions risk further constraints on shipping routes. As countries like China impose export bans to protect domestic supply and others reroute flows, the shock is reshaping global energy trade and increasing the likelihood of prolonged price volatility.

Russia is capturing an estimated $150 million per day in extra budget revenue as Middle Eastern conflict disrupts supply routes, pushing global oil prices sharply higher. The country has already earned $1.3-$1.9 billion in additional export‑related taxes, with potential to reach $3.3-$5 billion by month‑end if crude stays near $70-$80 per barrel. This surge temporarily offsets earlier fiscal strain, where energy revenues had fallen nearly 50% year‑on‑year, and strengthens Moscow’s short‑term macro position while reshaping global energy trade flows, especially toward India and China.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 13 basis points to 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.97% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.