Market Information Tuesday 03 March 2026

U.S. Treasury investors are weighing a classic stagflation risk after the weekend escalation in the Middle East. Brent crude jumped as much as 14% and broke above $80 a barrel, while the 10-year yield slid toward 3.90% before the initial flight-to-safety cooled. Short-end moves reversed, with the 2-year yield turning higher by around 6 basis points. The dilemma is whether safe-haven demand dominates or oil-driven inflation shifts expectations for the Federal Reserve.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted as the conflict intensified, prompting insurers to cancel war risk cover. One tanker was reported ablaze, at least four others were damaged and about 150 ships were stranded. The disruption pushed energy prices higher, with Brent up as much as 13% at one point and European gas prices also jumping. Roughly 10% of the world’s container fleet is caught up in wider delays, raising the risk of port congestion in Europe and Asia.

European markets wobbled as the surge in energy prices revived inflation concerns. Since Friday, Brent rose nearly 10% and European natural gas prices jumped about 50%, sharpening worries over an import dependent region. Rate cut expectations shifted, with markets pricing only an 8% chance of another European Central Bank cut by December versus around 40% a week earlier. The euro fell 0.7% to $1.1732 and hit its weakest level versus the Swiss franc since 2015, while bank shares dropped 5%.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.73% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.