Market Information Thursday 21 August 2025

UK inflation rose to 3.8 percent in July, above forecasts of 3.7 percent and the highest since early last year, driven by record air fare increases, higher fuel prices and rising food costs. Core inflation also stood at 3.8 percent while services inflation climbed to 5 percent, raising concerns over sticky price pressures. The data reduces the likelihood of further Bank of England rate cuts this year, with inflation expected to peak near 4 percent in September before easing gradually through 2026.

Oil prices rose after US inventories fell by 6 million barrels, with WTI trading near 63 dollars and Brent near 67 dollars. Meanwhile, crude stockpiles at the key Cushing hub rose to 23.5 million barrels, marking a seventh straight weekly increase. Traders are watching ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine while longer term forecasts remain bearish with futures down over 10 percent this year.

India’s central bank kept the repo rate at 5.50% in August after cutting 100 basis points earlier this year, with GDP growth projected at 6.5%. Retail inflation fell to its lowest in eight years in July driven by food prices, though core inflation remains above 4%. Policymakers flagged rising global tariffs, including a 50% US duty on Indian exports from August 27, as a major risk to growth.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 3 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.