Market Information Monday 11 August 2025

Nvidia and AMD have struck an unprecedented deal with the US government, agreeing to hand over 15% of revenues from Chinese sales of their H20 and MI308 chips in exchange for export licences, marking a rare direct revenue-sharing arrangement tied to trade policy. The licences, issued last week after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met President Trump, could unlock an estimated $23bn in 2025 H20 sales to China, based on Bernstein forecasts. The move comes amid heightened US-China trade tensions and internal debate over whether such exports bolster China’s AI and military capabilities. It also signals a shift in Washington’s export control strategy, as the Trump administration seeks to balance security concerns with economic gains ahead of potential trade talks with Beijing.

UK hiring intentions have slumped to record lows, with only 57% of private-sector employers planning to recruit in the next three months, down from 65% a year earlier, as firms absorb a £25bn rise in employer national insurance costs and face economic uncertainty. July saw the sharpest drop in vacancies since April, with starting salaries growing at their lowest pace in over four years, according to surveys by the CIPD, KPMG, and REC. Weak GDP growth, high labour and energy costs, and uncertainty over global tariffs are weighing on business confidence, hitting hospitality, care, and youth employment hardest, while engineering and construction show small pockets of resilience. The Bank of England’s fifth rate cut in a year underscores concerns about economic momentum amid inflation risks.

Hong Kong is seeing a surge in Chinese tech IPO applications after introducing confidential filing rules in May that allow lossmaking technology and biotech firms to undergo regulatory review before publicly declaring flotation plans. High-profile applicants include chipmakers Biren Technology (valued at $2.5bn) and Enflame Technology, AI start-ups Zhipu ($5bn) and MiniMax ($4bn), all seeking to capitalise on Nvidia export controls and Hong Kong’s more flexible fundraising rules compared with mainland exchanges. In the first seven months of 2025, 12 Chinese tech firms applied under Chapter 18C, the highest since its 2023 launch, as the city benefits from a booming equity market, faster approvals, and geopolitical shifts steering listings away from the US and UK.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.09% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 6 basis points to 2.66% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.