Market Information Tuesday 5 August 2025

Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.1% year-on-year in Q2, beating market expectations and marking its fastest expansion since mid-2023. The robust growth—well above the 4.8% forecast—was driven by strong manufacturing performance and frontloaded export orders as global buyers rushed to avoid potential U.S. tariffs. Exports of palm oil, base metals, and pharmaceuticals increased, while domestic demand remained resilient. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 4.0%. While Bank Indonesia maintained a growth forecast of 4.6% to 5.4% for 2025, the upbeat data strengthens the outlook amid external trade pressures.

Amid U.S. President Trump’s threat to “substantially” raise tariffs, India defended its imports of Russian oil as a vital economic measure, noting that 39% of its crude imports now come from Russia—up from just 2.5% before the Ukraine war. India argued its purchases helped stabilize global oil prices, citing previous U.S. encouragement to do so. Meanwhile, India highlighted that EU-Russia trade totaled over €84.7 billion in 2024—exceeding India’s own trade with Moscow—calling out Western “double standards” and warning that targeting India could disrupt global trade and energy security.

July’s U.S. jobs report revealed a stark deceleration in labor market momentum, with payrolls rising by only 73,000 and the three-month average sinking to 35,000—just a third of last year’s pace. President Trump denounced the data as “rigged,” but markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 and Stoxx Europe 600 both gaining on Monday. Analysts caution this may be a technical bounce rather than true optimism, especially with Trump’s new tariffs set to take effect August 7. The combination of weak labor data and trade tensions could pose broader risks to economic sentiment and capital flows.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.07% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 5 basis points to 2.61% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.