Market Information Thursday 17 April 2025

The WTO predicts global merchandise trade will fall 0.2% this year, nearly three percentage points lower than the base case with low tariffs. North American exports are expected to decline by 12.6%, although tariff freezes from the White House dampen the contraction somewhat. Despite the recent de-escalation of trade tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, especially between the U.S. and China, remains a serious threat to global growth, especially for fragile economies.

Stock markets experienced significant declines due to renewed fears about the global trade war’s impact on technology companies as Nvidia and AMD reported financial hits due to U.S. export restrictions to China. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell notably, with Nvidia’s shares dropping over 7% and AMD predicting $800 million in charges related to inventory and reserves. The ongoing tariff policies, particularly under the Trump administration, are causing market volatility and risk aversion.

The market for junk bonds has fallen sharply due to the trade war and associated economic uncertainty caused by President Trump. New issues are almost non-existent in both the US and Europe, which is especially a problem for private equity firms that rely on this form of financing. The risk premium on junk bonds has increased, making them an expensive and less attractive investment compared to previous years.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.21% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.52% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.