Market Information Wednesday 21 January 2026

The gas market in Amsterdam has been abruptly awakened from its winter slumber. The price of gas, which had been in gradual decline towards €20 per MWh due to new lng-import facilities and ample supply, has surged dramatically to a value of €36 per MWh. This increase was triggered by mass protests in Iran and the threat of U.S. intervention, leading to a geopolitical risk premium in trade futures. Traders, who had bet on further price decreases, were forced to quickly adjust their positions, further driving up prices. Additionally, a cold Siberian front increased demand, contributing to the price hike. The market is currently highly volatile, exacerbated by concerns of a potential trade war with the U.S. that could impact gas prices further.

According to the ZEW institute’s monthly confidence index, optimism among German investors is at its highest since mid-2021. The index rose from 45.8 in December to 59.6 in January, exceeding the expected 50. This optimism is driven by anticipated government investments aimed at revitalizing the German manufacturing industry. Germany’s economy grew by 0.2% in Q4 2025, and analysts expect further growth due to infrastructure and defense stimulus packages. Despite previous challenges with high energy costs, declining demand, and competition, these new government initiatives offer hope. Recent tensions over Greenland were only partly factored into the ZEW survey.

In 2026, activist investors plan to be more aggressive in pushing companies toward mergers and acquisitions (M&A) or breakups, aiming for faster and more profitable returns. The trend was evident in the second half of 2025, with 54% of activist campaigns demanding M&A, up from 35% in the first half. The M&A market saw its second-best year in 2025, with $5.1 trillion in deals, and activists are targeting small- and mid-cap companies for potential sales. With high demand for corporate restructuring, established and new activist investors are expected to drive significant changes in 2026.

The 6M Euribor increased with 2 basis points to 2.16% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 1 basis point to 2.88% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.