Market Information Wednesday 17 December 2025

The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in over four years, according to delayed data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. October figures were missing due to the prolonged federal government shutdown, which also complicated the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. While unemployment increased, 64,000 new jobs were added in November, exceeding expectations of 50,000, though margins of error remain high. Wage growth slowed, with real income gains modest. Job cuts in the federal civil service have totalled 270,000 since January, nearly 10% of the workforce. Economists suggest these figures fuel speculation about further interest rate cuts to support the labour market, despite ongoing inflation concerns. Market reaction was muted, with the S&P 500 down 0.2%.

The European Commission is easing its emissions target for passenger cars and vans. Instead of a full ban on petrol and diesel cars after 2035, manufacturers may produce a limited number if they offset emissions through renewable fuels or green steel. The new goal is a 90% reduction in emissions rather than 100%. Brussels argues this flexibility will help achieve CO₂ targets cost-effectively, but environmental groups call it a setback. The car industry welcomes the change, citing slow EV adoption and insufficient charging infrastructure. Critics, including German economist Monika Schnitzer, warn that weaker targets create uncertainty and hinder investment in electric vehicles. The proposal still requires approval from the European Parliament and Council. Additionally, the Commission plans incentives for small electric cars made in Europe and obligations for large companies to green their fleets.

Brent oil prices have dropped below $60 per barrel for the first time since May, closing at $58.80 –over 25% lower than in January. The market is pricing in a potential Ukraine ceasefire, which could lift restrictions on Russian exports and ease logistical bottlenecks. Gas prices are also falling, down 54% since February. Despite sanctions, Russian oil exports remain high, but finding buyers is increasingly difficult, forcing longer shipping routes and lower prices – around $40 per barrel. Meanwhile, global supply is rising as Opec+ relaxes cuts and countries like Brazil and the US boost output, creating a surplus projected at 3.7 million barrels per day by 2026. The oil curve has shifted from backwardation to contango, signalling abundant supply and incentivising storage. Analysts warn markets may be moving too fast, as territorial disputes remain unresolved.

The 6M Euribor is unchanged at 2.17% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap is unchanged at 2.92% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.