Market Information Thursday 23 October 2025

Former BOJ executive Eiji Maeda said the policy rate, now at 0.50%, could rise as soon as December in a likely 25bp step. He expects it to reach 1.0% by next summer, warning that the bank risks falling behind persistent inflation and a weak yen. The December hike would come after the Oct 29–30 meeting and before Dec 18–19. Maeda cautioned that the slow pace of normalization is creating “distortions” such as surging property prices.

Crude extended gains after settlement as Washington announced Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia’s major oil firms: Brent +$3.03 (+4.9%) to $64.35 (post-settlement) and WTI +$1.42 (+2.4%) to $59.92. Support also came from tighter fundamentals: U.S. crude inventories fell 0.96 million bbl to 422.8 million, versus expectations for an increase, underscoring near-term supply risk.

With UK CPI holding at 3.8% y/y in September, markets added to BoE-cut bets and gilt yields fell: the 2-year touched 3.739% (intraday low), while the 10-year slipped toward 4.37%. Interest-rate futures implied around a 75% chance of a 25bp cut by December, up sharply from pre-data levels.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.11% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 2 basis points to 2.58% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.