Market Information Monday 15 September 2025

Italy will keep its GDP growth forecasts at 0.6 per cent this year and 0.8 per cent in 2026, despite weaker trade flows and uncertainty over US tariffs. The economy shrank by 0.1 per cent in the second quarter but July industrial output rose 0.4 per cent, offering some relief for manufacturing. The government expects the deficit below the EU’s 3 per cent ceiling next year, paving the way to end the bloc’s excessive deficit procedure.

The Federal Reserve is set to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points next Wednesday, its first reduction since December. Markets have fully priced in the move as inflation rose to 2.9 per cent in August with core inflation steady at 3.1 per cent. The decision comes amid concerns over tariffs, slowing jobs growth and political pressure on the central bank.

France’s credit rating was cut to A+ by Fitch, reflecting investor unease over the euro area’s largest budget deficit at 5.4 percent of GDP. The move underscores political turmoil as a new prime minister struggles to pass a 2026 budget through a fractured parliament. Borrowing costs have risen close to Italian levels, intensifying pressure on the government to restore fiscal credibility.

The 6M Euribor increased with 1 basis point to 2.12% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap increased with 7 basis points to 2.67% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.