Market Information Monday 02 March 2026

The conflict in the Middle East has become a significant concern for investors, with fears over a power struggle in Iran and a prolonged regional war impacting global trade and inflation. U.S.-Israel strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, leading to Iran retaliating against Gulf states and disruptions in oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Market uncertainty is high, particularly regarding oil prices. Analysts are wary of complacency given past limited impacts from regional conflicts. Gold and U.S. Treasuries are being used as hedges against risks. While there is fear of prolonged conflict affecting oil supply and prices, some analysts believe Iran’s impact on trade and oil prices will be contained. Market volatility is expected, with differing views on the future movement of stocks and commodities.

Brent crude oil prices surged by 10% to approximately $80 a barrel due to the conflict in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, which have disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts are predicting that prices could reach $100 a barrel if disruptions continue. The closure of the Strait, through which over 20% of the world’s oil is transported, is a crucial factor driving prices up. As a response, OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil output by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April. However, even with alternative routes, the closure could still remove 8 to 10 million barrels per day from the supply chain. The situation has prompted Asian countries and companies to seek alternative oil sources, such as Russian oil for India. Analysts have mixed forecasts, with some seeing prices above $90 in the near term.

The AEX index in Amsterdam reached a new record in February despite concerns over the impact of the AI boom and escalating trade tensions due to actions by U.S. President Trump. The index increased by 2.5% in February, supported by companies like Wolters Kluwer, RELX, and Shell. Trump announced universal tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling and threatened higher tariffs if the situation is abused. Concerns over AI were prominent, exacerbated by a bleak report from Citrini Research and mixed results from Nvidia, despite rising valuations. AI startup Anthropic provided some relief in sentiment with new integrations.

The 6M Euribor decreased with 1 basis point to 2.13% compared to previous business day. The 10Y Swap decreased with 4 basis points to 2.67% compared to previous business day.

In the attachment, today’s market data on money and capital market rates as well as other rates are presented.